{"id":66009,"date":"2026-08-05T11:08:19","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T15:08:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/hormuz-reopening-hopes-drive-gold-surge-as-fed-officials-signal-gradual-hikes\/66009\/"},"modified":"2026-08-05T11:08:19","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T15:08:19","slug":"hormuz-reopening-hopes-drive-gold-surge-as-fed-officials-signal-gradual-hikes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/hormuz-reopening-hopes-drive-gold-surge-as-fed-officials-signal-gradual-hikes\/66009\/","title":{"rendered":"Hormuz Reopening Hopes Drive Gold Surge as Fed Officials Signal Gradual Hikes"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/metal\/gold\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"gold price today\">Gold prices<\/a> surged over 3% to approximately $4,230 per ounce<\/strong>, hitting a one-month high as optimism grows over a potential deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari<\/strong> advocated for a <strong>gradual increase in interest rates<\/strong>, stating that while policy is not yet &quot;particularly restrictive,&quot; he does not support aggressive hikes.<\/li>\n<li><strong>U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/energy\/crude-oil\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"12\" title=\"Crude oil\">crude oil<\/a> inventories rose unexpectedly by 2.48 million barrels<\/strong> for the week ending July 31, defying analyst expectations of a 1.5 million barrel drawdown.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Chinese optical module stocks faced a sharp selloff<\/strong> following reports that the <strong>FCC<\/strong> is drafting a ban on imports of new Chinese data center hardware, including transceivers used in AI infrastructure.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy<\/strong> warned that Russia is accelerating ballistic missile production ahead of winter, as a shortage of Western interceptors left Kyiv unable to stop a barrage that killed 17 people on Wednesday.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Geopolitical Breakthrough in the Strait of Hormuz<\/h2>\n<p>Markets are reacting sharply to reports that <strong>Iran<\/strong> and <strong>Oman<\/strong> are finalizing a &quot;middle corridor&quot; agreement to restore commercial shipping through the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>. Under the proposed 60-day interim deal, inbound vessels would use an Iranian-controlled lane while outbound ships would transit Omani waters. <strong>President Donald Trump<\/strong> signaled on Wednesday that an official announcement could be imminent, suggesting the deal is a &quot;last chance&quot; for Tehran to avoid further escalation.<\/p>\n<p>The prospect of reopened shipping lanes has significantly eased inflation fears linked to energy costs. <em>Brent crude<\/em> prices fell as much as 5% on the news, which in turn bolstered expectations that the <strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong> may not need to maintain its current hawkish stance. This shift in sentiment has been a primary driver for <strong>Gold (<a href=\"\/stock\/XAU\">XAU<\/a>)<\/strong>, which has now gained for three consecutive sessions.<\/p>\n<h2>Fed Policy and the &quot;Warsh&quot; Influence<\/h2>\n<p>In an interview with CNBC, <strong>Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari<\/strong> broke with the recent hold on rates, suggesting &quot;now is the time to start gradually raising rates&quot; to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target. Kashkari noted that <strong>Fed Chair Kevin Warsh<\/strong> has encouraged policymakers to use their independent judgment regarding the economy&#39;s resilience. Despite his call for action, Kashkari emphasized that he is not advocating for &quot;significant&quot; or &quot;dramatic&quot; hikes that would intentionally slow economic growth.<\/p>\n<p>The central bank is expected to receive a &quot;significant amount of data&quot; before its September meeting, which will be critical in determining the path of real yields. <em>Market participants have already begun lowering the probability of a September rate hike<\/em> to 57%, down from 67% earlier in the week, as the cooling geopolitical climate offsets the hawkish rhetoric from some Fed officials.<\/p>\n<h2>Energy Markets and Inventory Surprises<\/h2>\n<p>The <strong>Energy Information Administration (EIA)<\/strong> reported a surprise build in U.S. crude stockpiles, with inventories rising by <strong>2.479 million barrels<\/strong> against an expected decline. <strong>Cushing crude inventories<\/strong> also saw a significant increase of <strong>2.356 million barrels<\/strong>, adding downward pressure to oil prices already reeling from the Hormuz negotiations. However, refined products showed some tightness, with <strong>distillate stocks falling by 3.473 million barrels<\/strong>, indicating that fuel demand remains robust despite the increase in raw crude supply.<\/p>\n<h2>AI Supply Chain and Trade Restrictions<\/h2>\n<p>The technology sector is bracing for impact as the <strong>FCC<\/strong> reportedly prepares to restrict imports of Chinese-made optical transceivers, citing national security concerns. Shares of Chinese leader <strong>Zhongji Innolight (<a href=\"\/stock\/300308\">300308<\/a>)<\/strong> fell as the company generates over 60% of its revenue from the U.S. market, serving clients like <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/stock\/NVDA\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"15\" title=\"stock: NVDA\">Nvidia<\/a> (<a href=\"\/stock\/NVDA\">NVDA<\/a>)<\/strong> and <strong>Google (<a href=\"\/stock\/GOOGL\">GOOGL<\/a>)<\/strong>. Conversely, North American competitors such as <strong>Coherent (<a href=\"\/stock\/COHR\">COHR<\/a>)<\/strong>, <strong>Lumentum (<a href=\"\/stock\/LITE\">LITE<\/a>)<\/strong>, and <strong>Applied Optoelectronics (<a href=\"\/stock\/AAOI\">AAOI<\/a>)<\/strong> saw double-digit gains as investors anticipate a forced shift in the AI hardware supply chain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Gold prices surged over 3% to approximately $4,230 per ounce, hitting a one-month high as optimism grows over 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