{"id":71105,"date":"2026-08-29T17:38:15","date_gmt":"2026-08-29T21:38:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/kpler-updates-oil-flow-methodology-amid-gulf-of-oman-transit-shifts\/71105\/"},"modified":"2026-08-29T17:38:15","modified_gmt":"2026-08-29T21:38:15","slug":"kpler-updates-oil-flow-methodology-amid-gulf-of-oman-transit-shifts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/kpler-updates-oil-flow-methodology-amid-gulf-of-oman-transit-shifts\/71105\/","title":{"rendered":"Kpler Updates Oil Flow Methodology Amid Gulf of Oman Transit Shifts"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Kpler has transitioned its reporting methodology<\/strong> to focus on <strong>Gulf of Oman net exports<\/strong> rather than individual tanker listings to better capture complex ship-to-ship (STS) transfers.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Middle East oil flows<\/strong> remain severely constrained, with <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> transits down approximately <strong>92% to 95%<\/strong> from pre-conflict levels, averaging only <strong>5-6 vessels per day<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>HFI Research<\/strong> reports a global oil market deficit of <strong>3 million to 4 million barrels per day (b\/d)<\/strong>, with the <strong>Oman lane<\/strong> currently handling roughly <strong>4 million b\/d<\/strong> of the remaining regional transit.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Inventory levels<\/strong> in the Middle East are currently estimated at <strong>263 million barrels<\/strong>, which is roughly <strong>100 million barrels below<\/strong> the peak seen in May 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Kpler has implemented a significant adjustment to its oil flow tracking methodology, moving away from traditional tanker-by-tanker listings in favor of a <strong>Gulf of Oman net export model<\/strong>. This change is designed to improve data accuracy by accounting for &quot;dark&quot; activity and the increasing frequency of <strong>ship-to-ship (STS) transfers<\/strong> that occur without confirmed load terminals.<\/p>\n<p>The new methodology specifically tracks <strong>offshore Gulf of Oman net exports<\/strong>, excluding direct terminal loadings to provide a clearer picture of total <strong>Hormuz clearance<\/strong>. This adjustment address the &quot;shuttle tanker&quot; phenomenon, where vessels load at Gulf terminals, transit the strait with transponders off, and transfer cargo to larger vessels in the <strong>Gulf of Oman<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><em>Market analysts from HFI Research have praised the move<\/em>, noting that it provides a more reliable &quot;flow sheet&quot; for navigating the current supply deficit. According to recent data, the <strong>Oman lane<\/strong> remains the primary artery for regional exports, transiting approximately <strong>3.9 million to 4 million b\/d<\/strong>, with contributions from <strong>Iraq<\/strong> (1.5 million b\/d), <strong>UAE<\/strong> (1 million b\/d), and <strong>Kuwait<\/strong> (0.8 million b\/d).<\/p>\n<p>Despite these adjustments, the physical disruption in the region remains stark. <strong>Kpler<\/strong> data indicates that commodity vessel traffic through the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> has collapsed to just <strong>five to six ships per day<\/strong>, compared to a pre-war average of over <strong>100 vessels<\/strong>. This sustained disruption has shifted global oil balances into a deep deficit, even as <strong>Chinese demand<\/strong> remains a primary &quot;ceiling&quot; preventing a more aggressive rally in Brent crude prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Kpler has transitioned its reporting methodology to focus on Gulf of Oman net exports rather than individual tanker 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