{"id":71685,"date":"2026-09-11T14:38:16","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T18:38:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/jpmorgan-shifts-fed-outlook-toward-september-hike-us-deficit-hits-1-97-trillion\/71685\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T14:38:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T18:38:16","slug":"jpmorgan-shifts-fed-outlook-toward-september-hike-us-deficit-hits-1-97-trillion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/jpmorgan-shifts-fed-outlook-toward-september-hike-us-deficit-hits-1-97-trillion\/71685\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan Shifts Fed Outlook Toward September Hike; US Deficit Hits $1.97 Trillion"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>JPMorgan (<a href=\"\/stock\/JPM\">JPM<\/a>) now forecasts back-to-back Fed rate hikes<\/strong> in September and December 2026, a significant hawkish shift from its previous &quot;on-hold&quot; stance.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The US federal budget deficit reached $1.97 trillion<\/strong> for the first 11 months of the fiscal year, with the August deficit alone coming in at <strong>$166.8 billion<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Canadian AI firm Cohere is in advanced talks to raise $3 billion<\/strong> at a valuation of <strong>$20 billion<\/strong>, signaling continued massive investment in enterprise-grade artificial intelligence.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Stellantis (<a href=\"\/stock\/STLA\">STLA<\/a>) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Roshel<\/strong> for the potential sale of its idled Brampton, Ontario assembly plant.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The US Department of Commerce confirmed illegal solar subsidies from India<\/strong>, moving toward final rulings that could impose duties exceeding <strong>120%<\/strong> on certain imports.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Monetary Policy and Economic Data<\/h2>\n<p>JPMorgan (<a href=\"\/stock\/JPM\">JPM<\/a>) has revised its Federal Reserve forecast, now projecting <strong>25-basis-point rate hikes<\/strong> in both September and December 2026. This adjustment follows persistent inflation data and remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that raised questions about the central bank&#39;s commitment to its 2% target. <em>Market participants have reacted sharply to the shift, with the 30-year Treasury yield recently surging above 5.20%.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>New Treasury data shows the <strong>US budget deficit hit $166.8 billion in August<\/strong>, bringing the total for the first 11 months of the fiscal year to <strong>$1.97 trillion<\/strong>. While the August figure was lower than the estimated <strong>$211.1 billion<\/strong>, the cumulative deficit remains a focal point for economists monitoring long-term fiscal sustainability. <em>The widening gap comes as the government faces rising interest costs on existing debt.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Corporate Developments and AI Investment<\/h2>\n<p>Canadian AI powerhouse <strong>Cohere<\/strong> is reportedly in advanced negotiations to secure up to <strong>$3 billion<\/strong> in new funding. The deal would value the Toronto-based company at <strong>$20 billion<\/strong>, a nearly threefold increase from its <strong>$7 billion<\/strong> valuation in late 2025. Cohere has distinguished itself by focusing on &quot;security-first&quot; AI models for enterprise and government clients rather than consumer-facing applications.<\/p>\n<p>In the automotive sector, Stellantis (<a href=\"\/stock\/STLA\">STLA<\/a>) has taken a step toward offloading its idled Brampton, Ontario plant by signing an MOU with <strong>Roshel<\/strong>, a prominent Canadian armored vehicle manufacturer. The facility has been a point of contention for labor unions and local officials since production was paused. <em>The potential sale could pivot the site from traditional passenger vehicle assembly to defense-related manufacturing.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Trade and Legal Battles<\/h2>\n<p>The <strong>US Department of Commerce<\/strong> has finalized findings that Indian solar manufacturers received illegal subsidies, distorting the domestic market. Preliminary countervailing duties have been set as high as <strong>126%<\/strong> for certain exporters. This move is part of a broader trade enforcement action that also targets solar imports from Indonesia and Laos, aiming to protect the growing US solar manufacturing base.<\/p>\n<p>In the retail space, a federal judge has allowed Est\u00e9e Lauder (<a href=\"\/stock\/EL\">EL<\/a>) to expand its lawsuit against Walmart (<a href=\"\/stock\/WMT\">WMT<\/a>) over the sale of counterfeit beauty products. The ruling permits the cosmetics giant to pursue claims beyond the initial 17 tested items, covering brands like <strong>Clinique<\/strong>, <strong>La Mer<\/strong>, and <strong>Tom Ford<\/strong>. <em>The case highlights the ongoing challenges large retailers face in policing third-party sellers on their digital marketplaces.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Geopolitical Tensions<\/h2>\n<p>The <strong>International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)<\/strong> has referred Iran&#39;s nuclear file to the <strong>UN Security Council<\/strong> for the first time in 20 years. Iranian officials have warned that this resolution could be used as a pretext for military escalation. While Iran has agreed to allow inspectors to visit the <strong>Bushehr<\/strong> nuclear plant, access to other sites remains restricted and conditional on the cessation of regional conflicts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways JPMorgan (JPM) now forecasts back-to-back Fed rate hikes in September and December 2026, a significant hawkish shift from 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