{"id":72861,"date":"2026-10-12T04:38:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T08:38:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/global-energy-markets-volatile-as-trump-claims-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-opec-slashes-demand-outlook\/72861\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T04:38:23","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T08:38:23","slug":"global-energy-markets-volatile-as-trump-claims-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-opec-slashes-demand-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/global-energy-markets-volatile-as-trump-claims-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-opec-slashes-demand-outlook\/72861\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Energy Markets Volatile as Trump Claims Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire; OPEC Slashes Demand Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_86 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"#\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/global-energy-markets-volatile-as-trump-claims-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-opec-slashes-demand-outlook\/72861\/#Key_Takeaways\" >Key Takeaways<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"#\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/global-energy-markets-volatile-as-trump-claims-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-opec-slashes-demand-outlook\/72861\/#Trump_Announces_%22Energy_Ceasefire%22_Amid_Global_Diesel_Crisis\" >Trump Announces &quot;Energy Ceasefire&quot; Amid Global Diesel Crisis<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"#\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/global-energy-markets-volatile-as-trump-claims-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-opec-slashes-demand-outlook\/72861\/#OPEC_Slashes_Demand_Forecasts_for_2026\" >OPEC Slashes Demand Forecasts for 2026<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"#\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/global-energy-markets-volatile-as-trump-claims-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-opec-slashes-demand-outlook\/72861\/#RBI_Intervenes_to_Rescue_the_Rupee\" >RBI Intervenes to Rescue the Rupee<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"#\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/global-energy-markets-volatile-as-trump-claims-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-opec-slashes-demand-outlook\/72861\/#Escalation_in_the_Strait_of_Hormuz\" >Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"#\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/global-energy-markets-volatile-as-trump-claims-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-opec-slashes-demand-outlook\/72861\/#UK_Fiscal_Credibility_Under_the_Microscope\" >UK Fiscal Credibility Under the Microscope<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Key_Takeaways\"><\/span>Key Takeaways<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/energy\/crude-oil\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"12\" title=\"Crude oil\">Oil prices<\/a> fell by nearly 2%<\/strong> following President Donald Trump\u2019s announcement of an &quot;energy ceasefire&quot; between Russia and Ukraine, though skepticism remains high as neither nation has officially confirmed the deal.<\/li>\n<li><strong>OPEC has slashed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast<\/strong> to just <strong>400,000 barrels per day (bpd)<\/strong>, marking the fifth consecutive downward revision amid ongoing Middle East conflict and economic headwinds.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)<\/strong> launched its most aggressive currency support package in over a decade, causing the <strong>Indian Rupee (<a href=\"\/stock\/INR\">INR<\/a>)<\/strong> to jump nearly 1% after hitting record lows near 97 per dollar.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Geopolitical tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> as a US fighter jet disabled a cargo vessel breaching the Iran blockade, while a supertanker caught fire following a projectile strike.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The UK Government faces a &quot;budget credibility&quot; test<\/strong> as inflation and rising debt costs pressure Chancellor John Healey ahead of the October 28 fiscal statement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Trump_Announces_%22Energy_Ceasefire%22_Amid_Global_Diesel_Crisis\"><\/span>Trump Announces &quot;Energy Ceasefire&quot; Amid Global Diesel Crisis<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>President Donald Trump claimed on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an immediate <strong>&quot;energy ceasefire,&quot;<\/strong> halting attacks on each other&#39;s energy infrastructure. The announcement follows a controversial deal unveiled on October 9 to bring <strong>Russian diesel<\/strong> to global markets, supported by a US Treasury General License valid through April 2027. While <strong>Brent crude<\/strong> December futures slipped <strong>1.7% to $102.94 a barrel<\/strong> on the news, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed skepticism, noting that Russian strikes on power plants continued through Sunday.<\/p>\n<p>The &quot;energy ceasefire&quot; is seen as a strategic move by the Trump administration to lower domestic fuel costs ahead of the upcoming November midterm elections. Analysts at <em>Bloomberg Economics<\/em> described the diesel deal as a &quot;desperate political move,&quot; while European leaders have reiterated their support for Zelensky following Trump\u2019s suggestion that Ukraine might need &quot;new leadership&quot; to secure a final peace deal.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"OPEC_Slashes_Demand_Forecasts_for_2026\"><\/span>OPEC Slashes Demand Forecasts for 2026<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The <strong>Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)<\/strong> has lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to <strong>400,000 bpd<\/strong>, down from earlier estimates of 600,000 bpd. This revision reflects the severe impact of the ongoing <strong>US-Israeli war with Iran<\/strong>, which has disrupted exports and kept Brent prices above the <strong>$100 mark<\/strong>. Despite the lower demand outlook, OPEC+ members recently agreed to keep November production targets steady, as most members are already pumping roughly <strong>5 million bpd below pre-war levels<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"RBI_Intervenes_to_Rescue_the_Rupee\"><\/span>RBI Intervenes to Rescue the Rupee<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The <strong>Reserve Bank of India (RBI)<\/strong> unveiled a massive currency-defense package after the <strong>Rupee (<a href=\"\/stock\/INR\">INR<\/a>)<\/strong> depreciated approximately <strong>6.5%<\/strong> this year. Key measures include a special dollar window for state-run oil firms like <strong>Indian Oil Corp (<a href=\"\/stock\/IOC\">IOC<\/a>)<\/strong>, <strong>Bharat Petroleum (<a href=\"\/stock\/BPCL\">BPCL<\/a>)<\/strong>, and <strong>Hindustan Petroleum (<a href=\"\/stock\/HPCL\">HPCL<\/a>)<\/strong> to divert demand from the spot market. Additionally, the RBI introduced a <strong>20% cash reserve requirement<\/strong> for banks on certain foreign exchange derivative contracts, helping the currency recover to <strong>95.76 per dollar<\/strong> on Monday.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Escalation_in_the_Strait_of_Hormuz\"><\/span>Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Maritime security risks reached a new peak as <strong>US Central Command (CENTCOM)<\/strong> confirmed a fighter jet used a precision munition to disable the <strong>Ocean Molika<\/strong>, a Panama-flagged vessel that allegedly ignored warnings while leaving an Iranian port. Simultaneously, the <strong>UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO)<\/strong> reported that an outbound supertanker caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz after being struck by an unidentified projectile. Iran has warned it may question its commitment to the <strong>Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)<\/strong> following recent attacks on its nuclear and petrochemical sites.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"UK_Fiscal_Credibility_Under_the_Microscope\"><\/span>UK Fiscal Credibility Under the Microscope<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The <strong>UK Government<\/strong> is facing intense scrutiny over its upcoming budget as borrowing costs now exceed those of most G-7 nations. The <strong>Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)<\/strong> warned that Chancellor John Healey must provide &quot;credible spending totals&quot; to satisfy bond markets, which remain wary of the UK&#39;s ballooning welfare bill and debt interest payments. While higher inflation has boosted tax revenues, economists warn that it is also eroding departmental budgets, potentially requiring <strong>tens of billions of pounds<\/strong> in additional spending or deep service cuts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Oil prices fell by nearly 2% following President Donald Trump\u2019s announcement of an &quot;energy ceasefire&quot; between Russia and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":50383,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"rank_math_schema_Article":[],"rank_math_focus_keyword":[],"rank_math_description":[],"financial_data_references":[],"stock_symbols_mentioned":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[5012],"tags":[6174,1947,6758,4086,8266,4664,9692,23079,5042,5167,5196,5346,5426,5594],"class_list":["post-72861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-breaking-news","tag-npt","tag-oil","tag-rbi","tag-india","tag-ifs","tag-iran","tag-ukmto","tag-ukgilt","tag-ukraine","tag-inr","tag-russia","tag-uso","tag-opec","tag-brent"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72861","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72861"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72861\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}