{"id":73336,"date":"2026-10-20T19:08:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T23:08:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/rbas-hauser-signals-hawkish-tilt-as-inflation-outlook-deteriorates\/73336\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T19:08:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T23:08:14","slug":"rbas-hauser-signals-hawkish-tilt-as-inflation-outlook-deteriorates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/rbas-hauser-signals-hawkish-tilt-as-inflation-outlook-deteriorates\/73336\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA\u2019s Hauser Signals Hawkish Tilt as Inflation Outlook Deteriorates"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Inflation Outlook Worsens:<\/strong> RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that the inflation outlook is &quot;materially worse&quot; than projected in August, with the quarterly trimmed mean expected to exceed previous forecasts.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Capacity Constraints Intensify:<\/strong> Despite a slowing economy, Hauser noted that domestic capacity pressures are more intense than anticipated, complicating the bank&#39;s efforts to return inflation to the <strong>2-3% target<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Labor Market Softening:<\/strong> The September labor report was &quot;somewhat weaker than expected,&quot; with unemployment rising to <strong>4.7%<\/strong>, though Hauser indicated this may not be enough to prevent further rate hikes.<\/li>\n<li><strong>November Meeting &quot;Live&quot;:<\/strong> Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of a rate hike at the <strong>November 3<\/strong> meeting (Melbourne Cup Day) following these hawkish remarks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>RBA Deputy Governor Flags Persistent Price Pressures<\/h2>\n<p>Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor <strong>Andrew Hauser<\/strong> delivered a hawkish assessment of the Australian economy on Wednesday, suggesting that the battle against inflation is far from over. Speaking at the <strong>Citi<\/strong> (<a href=\"\/stock\/C\">C<\/a>) Australia and New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney, Hauser stated that the inflation outlook has deteriorated significantly since the bank&#39;s August projections.<\/p>\n<p>Hauser emphasized that while the RBA cannot &quot;aim for current inflation,&quot; the persistent nature of high prices remains a critical concern for the board. He noted that businesses continue to cite <strong>cost pressures<\/strong> as their primary challenge, driven by a combination of high energy prices and supply-side shocks.<\/p>\n<h2>Labor Market Weakness vs. Capacity Constraints<\/h2>\n<p>The latest economic data presents a complex picture for policymakers. Hauser acknowledged that the <strong>September labor report<\/strong> showed signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate ticking up to <strong>4.7%<\/strong> and employment falling by nearly <strong>40,000<\/strong>. While this softening is typically a signal for central banks to pause, Hauser countered this by highlighting that <strong>capacity constraints<\/strong> in the broader economy remain more intense than the bank had originally modeled.<\/p>\n<p>This &quot;operative tension&quot; between a softening labor market and stubborn domestic price pressures has left the RBA in a difficult position. Hauser remarked that the bank is still finalizing its forecasts ahead of the <strong>November 3<\/strong> policy decision, but he warned that the RBA must respond to supply shocks to ensure inflation expectations remain anchored.<\/p>\n<h2>Market Reaction and the Road to November<\/h2>\n<p>Financial markets reacted swiftly to Hauser&#39;s comments, with the <strong>Australian Dollar (AUD\/USD)<\/strong> climbing above the <strong>0.7000<\/strong> level to hit a two-week high. Investors interpreted the Deputy Governor&#39;s focus on &quot;materially worse&quot; inflation as a signal that a fifth interest rate hike for 2026 remains firmly on the table.<\/p>\n<p>The current cash rate stands at <strong>4.60%<\/strong> following a unanimous <strong>25-basis-point<\/strong> increase on September 29. All eyes now turn to the <strong>September-quarter CPI data<\/strong>, scheduled for release on <strong>October 28<\/strong>, which Hauser suggested could run hotter than the RBA\u2019s internal expectations. This data will likely serve as the final determinant for whether the RBA lifts rates again in November.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Inflation Outlook Worsens: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that the inflation outlook is &quot;materially worse&quot; than projected [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":50383,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"rank_math_schema_Article":[],"rank_math_focus_keyword":[],"rank_math_description":[],"financial_data_references":[],"stock_symbols_mentioned":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[5012],"tags":[3872,4222,4223,5420,8669,23327],"class_list":["post-73336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-breaking-news","tag-rba","tag-interest-rates","tag-inflation","tag-aud-usd","tag-australia-economy","tag-andrew-hauser"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73336"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73336\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}