{"id":73526,"date":"2026-10-23T21:38:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-24T01:38:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/fitch-forecasts-prolonged-ukraine-conflict-howard-hughes-joins-sp-smallcap-600\/73526\/"},"modified":"2026-10-23T21:38:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T01:38:25","slug":"fitch-forecasts-prolonged-ukraine-conflict-howard-hughes-joins-sp-smallcap-600","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/fitch-forecasts-prolonged-ukraine-conflict-howard-hughes-joins-sp-smallcap-600\/73526\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch Forecasts Prolonged Ukraine Conflict; Howard Hughes Joins S&#038;P SmallCap 600"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Fitch Ratings expects the Russia-Ukraine war to persist through 2027<\/strong>, citing a lack of diplomatic momentum and deeply entrenched negotiating positions.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ukraine\u2019s fiscal deficit is projected to remain at 18% of GDP in 2026<\/strong>, driven by high defense spending and weak domestic revenue generation.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Howard Hughes Holdings (<a href=\"\/stock\/HHH\">HHH<\/a>) will join the S&amp;P SmallCap 600<\/strong> effective October 28, replacing Arcosa Inc. (<a href=\"\/stock\/ACA\">ACA<\/a>) following its acquisition by CRH plc (<a href=\"\/stock\/CRH\">CRH<\/a>).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Lithuania\u2019s \u2018A+\u2019 credit rating was affirmed with a stable outlook<\/strong>, supported by strong economic growth and EU\/NATO membership despite regional geopolitical risks.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brazil\u2019s Iochpe-Maxion (<a href=\"\/stock\/MYPK3\">MYPK3<\/a>) has provisioned \u20ac15 million<\/strong> for Q3 2026 to cover ongoing antitrust proceedings in Germany.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Fitch Forecasts Extended Conflict and Fiscal Strain for Ukraine<\/h2>\n<p>Fitch Ratings has issued a sobering outlook for the <strong>Ukraine<\/strong> conflict, projecting that the war will likely continue through <strong>2027<\/strong>. The agency noted that current momentum toward a ceasefire is &quot;weak,&quot; as both sides remain far apart on key territorial and security concessions. <em>The persistence of hostilities is expected to keep Ukraine\u2019s credit profile under significant pressure, though near-term external debt obligations remain manageable following the successful restructuring of GDP warrants.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Financially, <strong>Ukraine<\/strong> continues to face a massive funding gap. Fitch projects the general government fiscal deficit will reach <strong>18% of GDP in 2026<\/strong> (or 28% when excluding grants). While international support, including the <strong>EU\u2019s \u20ac90 billion Ukraine Support Loan<\/strong>, provides a critical safety net, an additional <strong>$27 billion financing gap<\/strong> has emerged for 2026 due to the escalation of the conflict. <em>The agency warned that prolonged reliance on donor backing risks eventual fatigue among international partners if political friction over funding mechanisms intensifies.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Lithuania\u2019s Rating Affirmed Amid Growth and Defense Spending<\/h2>\n<p>Fitch Ratings affirmed <strong>Lithuania\u2019s<\/strong> Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at <strong>\u2018A+\u2019<\/strong> with a <strong>Stable Outlook<\/strong>. The rating reflects the country\u2019s resilient economic expansion, with real GDP growth projected at <strong>3.0% in 2026<\/strong>, significantly outpacing its peers. <em>Lithuania\u2019s membership in the EU and NATO continues to serve as a credible policy anchor, mitigating risks associated with its proximity to Russia and Belarus.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>However, the Baltic nation is rapidly scaling its domestic defense infrastructure, with spending expected to reach <strong>5.4% of GDP by 2026<\/strong>. This military ramp-up is projected to widen the general government fiscal deficit to <strong>2.8% of GDP<\/strong> in the coming year. Despite these costs, Fitch expects Lithuania\u2019s gross public debt to remain comfortably below the \u2018A\u2019 category peer median through 2028.<\/p>\n<h2>Corporate and Index Developments: Howard Hughes and Iochpe-Maxion<\/h2>\n<p>In index news, <strong>S&amp;P <a href=\"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/indices\/dowjones\/today\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Dow Jones Today\">Dow Jones<\/a> Indices<\/strong> announced that <strong>Howard Hughes Holdings (<a href=\"\/stock\/HHH\">HHH<\/a>)<\/strong> will enter the <strong>S&amp;P SmallCap 600<\/strong> index. The move, effective prior to the opening of trading on <strong>Wednesday, October 28<\/strong>, follows the acquisition of <strong>Arcosa Inc. (<a href=\"\/stock\/ACA\">ACA<\/a>)<\/strong> by <strong>CRH plc (<a href=\"\/stock\/CRH\">CRH<\/a>)<\/strong>. <em>The inclusion typically triggers increased demand for a company&#39;s shares from index-tracking funds.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Separately, Brazilian auto parts manufacturer <strong>Iochpe-Maxion (<a href=\"\/stock\/MYPK3\">MYPK3<\/a>)<\/strong> disclosed a <strong>\u20ac15 million ($16.2 million)<\/strong> provision in its third-quarter 2026 earnings to address antitrust proceedings in <strong>Germany<\/strong>. The legal matter relates to historical competition issues in the European wheels market. <em>The company stated the provision reflects its best estimate of potential settlements or fines as it seeks to resolve the long-standing litigation.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Regional Security Alerts in Saudi Arabia<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Saudi Arabia\u2019s Civil Defense<\/strong> issued and subsequently lifted several potential danger alerts across the Kingdom over the past 24 hours. Warnings were briefly active for the <strong>Riyadh<\/strong> and <strong>Najran<\/strong> regions, as well as the <strong>Wadi Al-Dawasir<\/strong> governorate. While authorities did not specify the exact nature of the threats, the alerts follow a period of heightened regional tensions. <em>Residents were advised to stay indoors during the alerts, but an &quot;all-clear&quot; has since been issued for all affected areas.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Fitch Ratings expects the Russia-Ukraine war to persist through 2027, citing a lack of diplomatic momentum and deeply [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":50383,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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