{"id":74398,"date":"2026-11-09T13:08:14","date_gmt":"2026-11-09T17:08:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/atlanta-fed-trims-q4-gdpnow-forecast-to-3-48-following-latest-data\/74398\/"},"modified":"2026-11-09T13:08:14","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T17:08:14","slug":"atlanta-fed-trims-q4-gdpnow-forecast-to-3-48-following-latest-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/atlanta-fed-trims-q4-gdpnow-forecast-to-3-48-following-latest-data\/74398\/","title":{"rendered":"Atlanta Fed Trims Q4 GDPNow Forecast to 3.48% Following Latest Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The Atlanta Fed&#39;s GDPNow model revised its Q4 2026 growth estimate down to 3.48%<\/strong>, a slight decrease from the previous projection of <strong>3.55%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The adjustment follows a series of recent economic reports<\/strong> including data from the <strong>US Census Bureau<\/strong> and the <strong>Institute for Supply Management (ISM)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Consumer spending and private investment remain primary drivers<\/strong>, though nowcasts for real personal consumption expenditures have seen minor downward pressure in recent sessions.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market participants view the 3.48% figure as a sign of continued economic resilience<\/strong>, maintaining a pace similar to the <strong>3.4%<\/strong> growth recorded in the third quarter.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The <strong>Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta<\/strong> updated its <strong>GDPNow<\/strong> model on November 9, 2026, lowering the &quot;nowcast&quot; for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter to <strong>3.48%<\/strong>. This revision marks a modest decline from the <strong>3.55%<\/strong> estimate provided earlier in the month, reflecting the mechanical integration of new economic data points without subjective adjustment.<\/p>\n<p>The slight downward shift was influenced by recent releases concerning international trade and manufacturing. Specifically, earlier updates in November had already seen the model adjust for a decrease in real gross private domestic investment growth, which moved from <strong>11.1%<\/strong> to <strong>10.6%<\/strong> following weaker-than-expected industrial and construction spending reports.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the marginal trim, the current <strong>3.48%<\/strong> projection suggests the U.S. economy is maintaining significant momentum heading into the end of the year. This level of growth would align closely with the <strong>3.4%<\/strong> annualized rate reported by the <strong>Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)<\/strong> for the third quarter of 2026, which surpassed initial market expectations.<\/p>\n<p>Investors and analysts track the <strong>GDPNow<\/strong> figure closely as a real-time barometer of economic health, though the Atlanta Fed emphasizes it is a <em>running estimate<\/em> rather than an official forecast. The model&#39;s next update is highly anticipated as it will incorporate upcoming retail sales and housing starts data, which could further refine the outlook for holiday-season economic activity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways The Atlanta Fed&#39;s GDPNow model revised its Q4 2026 growth estimate down to 3.48%, a slight decrease from 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