{"id":74490,"date":"2026-11-11T00:08:16","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T04:08:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/goldman-sachs-projects-hawkish-fed-shift-as-global-economic-pressures-mount\/74490\/"},"modified":"2026-11-11T00:08:16","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T04:08:16","slug":"goldman-sachs-projects-hawkish-fed-shift-as-global-economic-pressures-mount","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/goldman-sachs-projects-hawkish-fed-shift-as-global-economic-pressures-mount\/74490\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs Projects Hawkish Fed Shift as Global Economic Pressures Mount"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Goldman Sachs (<a href=\"\/stock\/GS\">GS<\/a>) has revised its Federal Reserve outlook to include two 25-basis-point rate hikes in December 2026 and March 2027, driven by three consecutive months of upside inflation surprises.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Japanese retail investors are shifting trillions of yen into government bonds as yields on five-year notes top 2%, marking a historic departure from decades of cash-heavy saving habits.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Thailand\u2019s industrial sentiment has been severely impacted by catastrophic flooding and high energy costs, with over 4,200 businesses reporting damage and production halts at major firms like Toyota and Honda.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>U.S. core PCE inflation is expected to remain above 3% throughout 2026, fueled by persistent cost pressures from tariffs, energy shocks, and surging AI infrastructure demand.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Goldman Sachs Signals Extended Tightening Cycle<\/h2>\n<p>Goldman Sachs (<a href=\"\/stock\/GS\">GS<\/a>) has significantly adjusted its monetary policy forecast, now projecting that the <strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong> will deliver 25-basis-point interest rate hikes in both <strong>December 2026<\/strong> and <strong>March 2027<\/strong>. This hawkish pivot follows a string of disappointing inflation data, with October marking the third consecutive month that price increases exceeded economist expectations.<\/p>\n<p>The firm\u2019s chief U.S. economist, <strong>David Mericle<\/strong>, noted that while inflation may show temporary softening in late 2026, &quot;start-of-the-year price increases&quot; and persistent cost pressures are likely to drive a sharp rebound in January. Analysts suggest the Fed will maintain this tightening stance until <strong>core PCE inflation<\/strong> moves closer to the 2% target, a milestone now not expected until late 2027.<\/p>\n<h2>Japanese Savers Abandon Cash for Sovereign Debt<\/h2>\n<p>In a major shift for global capital flows, Japanese households are pouring record amounts of capital into <strong>Retail Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs)<\/strong>. Issuance surged to <strong>\u00a52.03 trillion ($13.4 billion)<\/strong> in November alone, doubling the previous month&#39;s volume as savers respond to the most lucrative returns in decades.<\/p>\n<p>With five-year fixed-rate JGBs now offering yields of approximately <strong>2.39%<\/strong>, the gap between sovereign debt and traditional bank deposits\u2014which often yield as little as <strong>0.5%<\/strong>\u2014has become too wide for conservative savers to ignore. This reallocation from Japan\u2019s <strong>\u00a51.13 quadrillion<\/strong> cash and deposit pool could significantly reduce the nation&#39;s reliance on central bank intervention to fund its debt.<\/p>\n<h2>Flooding and Energy Costs Batter Thai Industry<\/h2>\n<p>The <strong>Federation of Thai Industries (FTI)<\/strong> reports a sharp decline in industrial sentiment as the country grapples with a dual crisis of severe flooding and elevated energy prices. The flooding has impacted <strong>4,216 businesses<\/strong> across 55 provinces, with total economic losses estimated to exceed <strong>THB 69 billion ($2 billion)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Major automotive manufacturers, including <strong>Toyota<\/strong> (<a href=\"\/stock\/TM\">TM<\/a>) and <strong>Honda<\/strong> (<a href=\"\/stock\/HMC\">HMC<\/a>), have been forced to temporarily suspend production at several plants due to supply chain disruptions and facility damage. The FTI is currently urging the government to implement emergency relief measures, including debt holidays and energy subsidies, to prevent a prolonged industrial slump.<\/p>\n<h2>Global Inflationary Tailwinds Persist<\/h2>\n<p>Market participants are increasingly wary of structural inflationary drivers that appear resistant to current interest rate levels. Beyond traditional energy shocks, the massive capital expenditure required for <strong>Artificial Intelligence (AI)<\/strong> infrastructure and shifting global trade tariffs are creating a &quot;higher-for-longer&quot; floor for global prices.<\/p>\n<p>As the Federal Reserve prepares for its December meeting, the probability of a rate hike has climbed to nearly <strong>99%<\/strong> according to latest futures data. This aggressive stance is being mirrored by other institutional heavyweights like <strong>Bank of America<\/strong> (<a href=\"\/stock\/BAC\">BAC<\/a>), which also anticipates a terminal rate reaching the <strong>4.25%\u20134.50%<\/strong> range by early next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Goldman Sachs (GS) has revised its Federal Reserve outlook to include two 25-basis-point rate hikes in December 2026 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":50383,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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