Key Takeaways
- Swiss sight deposits surged to CHF 452.7 billion for the week ending February 13, indicating a significant increase in banking system liquidity.
- Japan's Q4 GDP grew by only 0.2% annualized, missing the 1.6% forecast, yet the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its hawkish tightening path.
- Anthropic launched a new office in Bengaluru, marking India as the second-largest global market for its AI assistant, Claude.
- UBS Group AG (UBS) faces intense backlash in China after a valuation benchmark shift for its silver fund triggered a 31.5% plunge in net asset value.
- Iran signaled readiness for nuclear compromises, offering the U.S. access to its energy and aviation sectors in exchange for the removal of crippling economic sanctions.
SNB Liquidity and Japan’s Monetary Outlook
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported a notable rise in total sight deposits, which climbed to CHF 452.7 billion for the week ending February 13, up from CHF 447.4 billion the previous week. Domestic sight deposits also saw an uptick, reaching CHF 437.0 billion compared to the prior CHF 430.6 billion. This increase suggests a shift in liquidity management by the central bank as it navigates a low-inflation environment where SNB President Martin Schlegel has signaled tolerance for temporary negative price growth.
In Japan, preliminary data revealed a fragile economic recovery as Q4 GDP rose just 0.2% annualized, significantly trailing market expectations of 1.6%. Despite this soft growth print, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears undeterred in its efforts to normalize monetary policy. The BoJ Yen-Index rose slightly to 75.62 on February 15, and analysts suggest that persistent inflationary pressures—evidenced by a 3.4% rise in the GDP deflator—will keep the central bank on track for further rate hikes in 2026.
Corporate Developments: Anthropic and UBS
AI safety pioneer Anthropic, backed by tech giants Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), officially opened its new operations hub in Bengaluru, India. The expansion follows a massive $30 billion funding round that valued the company at $380 billion. India has rapidly become the second-largest market for Anthropic’s Claude AI, and the new office will focus on localizing AI for the region’s diverse languages and sectors like agriculture and law.
Meanwhile, UBS Group AG (UBS) is embroiled in a controversy regarding its UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund LOF in China. The joint venture abruptly switched its valuation benchmark from local Shanghai settlement prices to international market prices, resulting in a 31.5% one-day drop in net asset value. Investors, who had anticipated losses would be capped at approximately 17% due to local price limits, have voiced outrage, leading to a temporary suspension of trading to protect remaining capital.
Geopolitical and Regional Economic Trends
In diplomatic news, Tehran has intensified its efforts to negotiate the removal of U.S. sanctions. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi stated that the "ball is in America's court," suggesting that Iran is willing to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium if economic relief is provided. Tehran is reportedly offering a pragmatic deal that includes joint investments in oil and gas fields and the purchase of civilian aircraft to ensure the durability of any new agreement.
In Southeast Asia, Thailand’s economy is showing signs of a U-shaped recovery despite a decline in traditional tourism and ongoing global trade uncertainties. The Ministry of Finance maintains a 2.0% GDP growth forecast for 2026, driven by a resilient manufacturing base and a shift toward high-value medical tourism. While household debt remains a structural headwind, the rebound in private consumption and government stimulus measures are expected to support a stable recovery through the fiscal year.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.