Key Takeaways
- Apple (AAPL) shares surged over 5%, marking the stock's largest single-day increase since August and lifting major indices.
- Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan warned that the next interest rate move could be a hike or a cut, expressing deep concern over returning inflation to the 2% target.
- Iran submitted a new nuclear proposal involving a long-term freeze on enrichment, though the IDF cautioned that the mission is a "failure" if nuclear material remains in Iranian territory.
- Venezuela’s oil exports hit 1.23 million barrels per day in April, with significant volumes captured by Chevron (CVX) and Reliance Industries (RELIANCE).
- US Manufacturing PMIs showed expansion in April, with the S&P Global reading hitting 54.5, outperforming expectations despite a slightly lower ISM figure of 52.7.
Fed Policy and Economic Outlook
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivered a hawkish tone on Friday, stating the Federal Reserve should avoid suggesting any policy easing at this time. Logan emphasized that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain and that she opposed the easing bias during the most recent FOMC meeting. Market participants are reassessing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts as Logan noted that the next move could potentially be an increase if inflation does not cool.
On the data front, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April rose to 54.5, beating the previous month's 54.0. However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, slightly missing the estimate of 53.2. These figures suggest the manufacturing sector remains in expansion territory, though the discrepancy between the two reports highlights ongoing volatility in industrial sentiment.
Geopolitical Tensions and Nuclear Negotiations
Iran’s Foreign Minister has launched a "flurry of calls" to regional counterparts following a new proposal regarding its nuclear program. According to reports, Tehran is offering to discuss the nuclear file through technical committees and a long-term enrichment freeze, while deferring missile and arms discussions. Despite this, the IDF maintains that military targets have been achieved but warns that any deal leaving enrichment capabilities in Iran is a "big failure."
In the US, White House envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly sent amendments to the draft peace deal, demanding that Iran commit to not moving any enriched uranium. Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister dismissed a Russian ceasefire offer for May 9 as a strategic attempt to win over US political favor rather than a genuine peace effort.
Energy and Commodities Market
Oil prices continued their downward trajectory on Friday, with US Crude falling below $101 per barrel. This decline comes despite news that Venezuela’s oil exports surged to 1.23 million barrels per day in April. Major players including Chevron (CVX), Trafigura, Vitol, and Reliance Industries (RELIANCE) were the top takers of Venezuelan crude, with exports to the US rising to 445,000 barrels per day.
In the metals market, Silver prices spiked by 3%, reaching $76.11 per ounce. Investors appear to be hedging against persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, even as energy prices soften. In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is facing criticism for a "snail's pace" of rate hikes, which has resulted in a weak yen and a sell-off in the long end of the JGB market.
Corporate and Equity Highlights
Apple (AAPL) provided a significant boost to the Nasdaq, which rose 0.36% to 24,981.71 shortly after the open. The tech giant's 5% rally offset broader concerns regarding the Fed's "higher for longer" stance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 150.77 points, trading near the 49,802 level.
Separately, the Federal Reserve issued a consumer warning regarding phishing scams. The Fed clarified that it does not contact consumers directly via email or text and urged the public to verify any messages claiming their bank accounts have been compromised. This warning follows an uptick in fraudulent activity targeting retail banking customers amid shifting economic conditions.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.