Key Takeaways
- Germany's economy showed signs of resilience in Q4 2025 with a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, while regional inflation data for January 2026 presented a varied picture.
- Italy's unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 5.6% in December 2025, coupled with a 0.3% GDP expansion in Q4 2025, signaling an improving labor market and economic activity.
- The UK housing market experienced a slowdown in December 2025 as mortgage approvals dropped to 61.0K, falling short of expectations.
- China recorded an unprecedented trade surplus of approximately $1.2 trillion in 2025, with December alone seeing a $114 billion surplus, highlighting its robust export-led growth model.
- Spain's current account balance narrowed significantly in November 2025 to EUR 0.2 billion, a sharp decrease from the previous month's EUR 7.25 billion.
Fresh economic data released across Europe on Friday paints a mixed picture, with Germany reporting stronger-than-expected GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 but varied regional inflation figures for January 2026. Meanwhile, Italy's labor market showed improvement with a declining unemployment rate, and the UK's housing sector cooled. Globally, China's trade surplus reached a record high in 2025, underscoring its continued export strength.
Eurozone Economic Performance and Inflation Outlook
Germany's economy demonstrated unexpected strength at the close of 2025, with preliminary data indicating a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (Q/Q) increase in seasonally adjusted GDP for Q4, surpassing estimates of 0.2%. On a year-on-year (Y/Y) basis, GDP grew by 0.6%. This positive momentum comes alongside stable unemployment figures, with the German unemployment change registering 0K in January 2026, maintaining the unemployment rate at 6.3%.
However, inflation trends across German states for January 2026 showed diverse movements. North Rhine-Westphalia's CPI (Y/Y) rose to 2.0% from 1.8% in December 2025, while Baden-Wuerttemberg's CPI (Y/Y) held steady at 2.1% after a previous 1.9% in December. Saxony's CPI (Y/Y) increased to 2.3% from 1.9%, Brandenburg's remained at 2.2%, Bavaria's rose to 2.1% from 1.7%, and Hesse's held at 2.1%. These regional figures contrast with the national December 2025 CPI (Y/Y) which stood at 1.8%, falling below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target for the first time since September 2024.
The ECB's 1-year CPI expectations for December 2025 remained at 2.8%, while 3-year expectations edged up to 2.6% from a previous 2.5%, suggesting persistent, albeit contained, inflationary pressures in the medium term.
Italy's labor market showed positive developments, with the unemployment rate for December 2025 falling to an estimated 5.6%, below the forecasted 5.8% and down from a revised 5.7% in November. This improvement was mirrored by a preliminary Q4 2025 GDP growth of 0.3% Q/Q and 0.8% Y/Y, exceeding expectations.
UK Economic Indicators
The United Kingdom's housing market experienced a notable slowdown in December 2025. Mortgage approvals came in at 61.0K, significantly lower than the estimated 64.9K and the previous month's 64.5K. This suggests a cooling trend in the housing sector.
Accompanying this, net consumer credit for December was £1.5 billion, below the estimated £1.7 billion, while net lending secured on dwellings was £4.6 billion, slightly above the estimated £4.4 billion. Money supply M4 (M/M) saw a modest increase of 0.3% in December, a decrease from the previous 0.8%, but the annual growth (Y/Y) picked up to 4.7% from 4.3%.
Spain's Current Account and Global Trade Dynamics
Spain's current account balance for November 2025 registered a surplus of just EUR 0.2 billion, a substantial drop from the EUR 7.25 billion recorded in the prior month. This significant narrowing indicates a shift in the country's external trade and financial flows.
In global trade, China's services trade deficit for December 2025 was reported at $13.7 billion, contributing to a $189.8 billion deficit for the full year 2025. However, China's overall trade surplus for 2025 reached an astounding $1.2 trillion, marking the largest ever recorded by any country, with December alone seeing a $114 billion surplus. This robust export performance occurred despite global trade tensions and earlier predictions of a slowdown.
Other Market-Moving News
In other news, the London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced a delay to its market open, which was attributed to a precautionary measure. Geopolitically, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reportedly blamed Europeans for gaps in Ukraine's air defense capabilities, as reported by the Financial Times. Furthermore, Israel's Ynet reported that a U.S. military destroyer docked in Israel's southern port of Eilat, an event described as "pre-planned" and part of ongoing cooperation between Israeli and U.S. militaries.
A historical note also surfaced regarding former U.S. President Trump’s rapid reversal on Greenland policy, highlighting frequent policy U-turns that can make market positioning difficult.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.