Key Takeaways
- Canada's retail sales saw a significant rebound in June, growing by 1.5% month-over-month, with core retail sales (excluding autos) surging 1.9%, surpassing expectations. This strong monthly performance, however, followed a slower 0.4% rise in Q2 retail sales, marking the slowest quarterly growth since Q2 2024.
- NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed robust security guarantees for Ukraine, envisioned as a "second layer" to deter future Russian attacks, with the U.S. and NATO involved and structured similarly to NATO's Article 5. Turkey has offered to participate, focusing on maritime security.
- India is on track to roll out its first locally made semiconductor chip by the end of 2025, as announced by IT Secretary S. Krishnan and Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, with six fabrication units currently under construction.
- Mexico's economy showed mixed signals in Q2 2025, with GDP growing 0.6% quarter-over-quarter but only 0.0% year-over-year. Economic activity (IGAE) in June increased by 1.30% year-over-year and 0.22% month-over-month.
Canada's Retail Sector Sees June Rebound Amidst Slow Q2 Growth
Canadian retail sales experienced a notable surge in June, with overall sales rising by 1.5% month-over-month, matching expectations. This rebound followed a -1.1% decline in the previous month. Core retail sales, which exclude volatile auto sales, showed even stronger growth, increasing by 1.9% in June, significantly exceeding the estimated 0.8% and the previous month's -0.2% (revised to -0.3%). This strong monthly performance was largely driven by gains in food and beverage sales, up 1.2%, and clothing stores, though moderated by lower sales in sporting goods and miscellaneous retailers.
Despite the robust monthly figures, the second quarter of 2025 saw a more subdued performance for Canadian retail. Q2 retail sales rose by a mere 0.4%, marking the slowest quarterly growth since Q2 2024. In volume terms, overall retail sales in Q2 decreased by 0.3%, while nominal sales fell by 0.5%. This indicates a challenging environment for Canadian consumers, impacted by factors like higher mortgage rates and living costs. However, an advance estimate for July suggests a potential 0.6% monthly increase in nominal retail sales, hinting at a possible return to positive growth.
Ukraine and NATO Intensify Security Guarantee Discussions
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Kyiv to discuss critical security guarantees with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. These guarantees are envisioned as a "second layer" of protection, building upon the strengthening of Ukraine's armed forces, with both the United States and NATO expected to be involved. President Zelenskyy emphasized that these security arrangements should be structured similarly to NATO's Article 5, which mandates collective defense among member states.
Turkey has expressed its willingness to participate in these security guarantees, specifically offering to take responsibility for maritime security. However, a Turkish defense ministry source indicated that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine must first be secured before decisions on a peacekeeping mission can be finalized. Zelenskyy also stated that Ukraine's current number of F-16 fighter jets would not be sufficient to guarantee security and accused Russia of issuing ultimatums to delay an end to the war and prevent a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He urged the international community to impose sanctions on Russia if it shows no desire to end the conflict. Discussions on the architecture of these security guarantees are expected to be finalized within the next 7 to 10 days.
India's Semiconductor Ambition: First Locally Made Chip Expected by Year-End
India is making significant strides in its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, with the country's IT Secretary S. Krishnan announcing that the first locally made chip is expected to roll out by the end of 2025. Union Minister for Electronics and IT Ashwini Vaishnaw further confirmed this, stating that six semiconductor fabrication units are currently under construction across the country.
The initial chips, in the 28-90 nanometer technology range, are designed for applications in the automotive, telecom, power, and train sectors, a segment that accounts for 60% of the global market volume. This initiative, part of the ambitious Semicon India program, aims to position India as a global hub for semiconductor research, innovation, and production, marking a significant step towards self-sufficiency in a globally dominated sector.
Mexico's Economy Shows Mixed Performance in Q2
Mexico's economic performance in the second quarter of 2025 presented a mixed picture. The country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.6% quarter-over-quarter (seasonally adjusted), aligning with expectations. However, on a year-over-year basis, Q2 GDP recorded 0.0% growth, following a 0.1% increase in the previous quarter.
Monthly economic activity, as measured by the IGAE, saw a 1.30% year-over-year increase in June, slightly below the estimated 1.40% but a significant improvement from the previous -0.19%. Month-over-month, IGAE grew by 0.22% in June, also slightly under the 0.25% estimate but up from 0.01% previously. The Q2 GDP expansion was primarily driven by a recovery in the secondary (manufacturing) and tertiary (services) sectors, which offset a decline in agricultural output.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.