Key Takeaways
- Heathrow Airport has slashed its 2026 passenger forecast to a range of 80.1 million to 84.5 million, citing a 1.1% year-on-year decline driven by the ongoing Iran-US conflict.
- IG Metall issued a sharp rebuke to Volkswagen (VOW3) management, labeling threats to company bylaws and co-determination as "irresponsible" amid reports of potential global job cuts reaching 100,000.
- Gazprom (GAZP) confirmed plans to further increase gas exports to China in 2026, after exceeding its 2025 contractual obligations via the Power of Siberia pipeline by 0.84 billion cubic meters (bcm).
- Geopolitical volatility in the Middle East is expected to reduce Heathrow’s adjusted EBITDA by £147 million compared to 2025, as Middle East routes have seen a 25% traffic collapse.
Aviation: Heathrow Warns of Geopolitical Headwinds
London’s Heathrow Airport warned on Friday that the Iran-US war is significantly denting global travel demand. The airport now expects a "base case" of 83.6 million passengers for 2026, down from its previous estimate of 85 million. While passenger volumes for the first five months of the year rose 0.7% to 32.8 million, the airport noted that "notable downward pressure" is emerging as the conflict persists.
The financial fallout is substantial, with Heathrow forecasting a £147 million decline in adjusted core profit compared to last year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also doubled the price of kerosene, forcing many carriers to raise air fares. Despite these challenges, Heathrow reported that connecting traffic rose 10% in some periods as travelers rerouted away from Middle Eastern hubs.
Automotive: IG Metall Slams Volkswagen Leadership
The German union IG Metall has escalated its rhetoric against Volkswagen (VOW3), following renewed media reports of massive restructuring. The union stated that threats to the "VW Law" and the established system of labor co-determination are causing deep concern across its workforce. This follows a Manager Magazin report suggesting the automaker could aim to slash up to 100,000 jobs worldwide over the coming years.
Volkswagen (VOW3) declined to comment on the specific job cut figures but acknowledged that its current business model "no longer works for all brands." The company is currently under pressure to find a solution for its Osnabrück plant, where production is scheduled to end in 2027. Management has reportedly explored repurposing underutilized sites for defense industry contracts to avoid outright closures.
Energy: Gazprom Strengthens Ties with Beijing
In its annual shareholder meeting, Gazprom (GAZP) CEO Alexei Miller highlighted the growing demand for Russian gas in the Chinese market. The company exported 38.84 bcm of gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline in 2025, surpassing its planned capacity. For 2026, the company intends to increase these volumes further as it pivots away from European markets.
The Russian energy giant has set an investment budget of RUB 1.1 trillion ($11 billion) for 2026, focusing on the expansion of the Power of Siberia trunkline and the development of the Eastern Gas Supply System. Additionally, Gazprom (GAZP) and China's CNPC are advancing plans for the Power of Siberia 2 project, which could eventually deliver up to 50 bcm annually via Mongolia.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.