Key Takeaways
- US non-farm payrolls are projected to rise by 80,000 to 100,000 in July, signaling a modest recovery from June’s soft reading of 57,000.
- Argus Research upgraded SpaceX (SPCX) to Buy from Hold with a $160 price target, citing robust revenue growth and strong operational performance.
- PPL Corporation (PPL) reported Q2 EPS of $0.30, missing analyst estimates despite a 4% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.11 billion.
- Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed a landmark trilateral defense pact in Mecca, establishing a mutual defense agreement amid escalating regional tensions.
- Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains severely depressed, with only 2–8 daily transits recorded compared to a pre-war average of 130–140.
US Labor Market Eyes Modest July Rebound
Economists expect the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to report a gain of roughly 80,000 to 100,000 jobs for July 2026. This follows a disappointing June print of just 57,000 additions, which had raised concerns about a cooling economy. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.2%, though some analysts suggest a slight risk of it edging up to 4.3% if labor participation recovers.
Wage growth is anticipated to hold steady, with average hourly earnings projected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and FactSet noted that while the labor market is showing stability, it lacks the "heat" seen in previous years. This "Goldilocks" scenario—slow but steady growth—is expected to keep the Federal Reserve focused on inflation data ahead of potential rate decisions later this year.
SpaceX Upgraded Following Strong Financial Performance
Argus Research has upgraded SpaceX (SPCX) from Hold to Buy, setting a new price target of $160. The upgrade follows the company's first earnings report as a public entity, which revealed a 92% year-over-year revenue surge to $7.8 billion. Despite reporting a loss of $0.09 per share, the figure significantly beat the consensus estimate of a $0.26 loss.
Analyst Steven Silver highlighted that SpaceX's "robust growth outlook" outweighs concerns regarding high capital expenditure on AI infrastructure. The firm projects SpaceX’s revenue run rate could approach $100 billion by the end of 2026. While the stock remains volatile due to the expiration of insider lock-up periods, Argus believes the company's rapid scaling and computing capacity growth justify a premium valuation.
PPL Corporation Reaffirms Guidance Despite Q2 Miss
PPL Corporation (PPL) announced second-quarter results that fell short of Wall Street expectations. The utility provider reported adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share, missing the analyst consensus of $0.37. Total operating revenues reached $2.11 billion, a 4% increase from the prior year but below the estimated $2.19 billion.
Despite the quarterly miss, PPL reaffirmed its full-year 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $1.90 to $1.98. CEO Vincent Sorgi emphasized the company's continued execution across its regulated portfolio and highlighted $10 billion to $12 billion in potential investment opportunities tied to data center development in Pennsylvania and Kentucky through 2032.
Geopolitical Shifts: Mecca Defense Pact and Maritime Stalls
In a major shift in Middle Eastern security architecture, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the "Mecca Joint Defence Agreement" on Friday. The pact stipulates that an armed attack on any one of the three nations will be treated as an attack on all. This alliance brings together Saudi oil wealth, Turkey’s NATO-standard military industry, and Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities to counter rising regional threats.
Simultaneously, MarineTraffic and Kpler data indicate that maritime activity in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remains at historic lows. Only eight confirmed crossings were recorded in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, a 33% daily decline. Most vessels are now following a unilateral Iranian routing scheme, as the internationally recognized Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) remains largely abandoned due to the ongoing conflict.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.