Key Takeaways
- ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf signaled that "nothing is off the table" for future meetings, emphasizing that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside despite a lack of immediate second-round effects.
- China and the U.S. are in active consultations regarding a reciprocal $30 billion tariff reduction framework, aiming to stabilize trade relations ahead of a high-stakes summit between President Trump and President Xi.
- Switzerland's SECO nearly doubled its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% (up from 0.9%), citing a resilient second quarter and a weaker Swiss franc boosting exports.
- Huawei is projected to dominate 50% of China’s AI chip market by the end of 2026, as Nvidia (NVDA) faces a collapse in its local share to approximately 8% due to ongoing U.S. export restrictions.
- Canada and the EU are exploring a "unique alliance" or "associate membership" to hedge against U.S. trade volatility, drawing a sharp warning of "hostile act" tariffs from President Trump.
ECB Maintains "Live Meeting" Stance Amid Inflation Risks
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf stated on Thursday that every upcoming policy meeting is considered "live" due to persistent economic uncertainties. While he noted that the central bank is not yet seeing concerning second-round effects on wages, he warned that inflation risks still favor higher levels. Makhlouf reiterated the ECB's commitment to its 2% medium-term goal, noting that markets currently recognize and price in this focus.
The Irish central bank chief highlighted that while gas prices have moved closer to baseline levels, the outlook remains clouded by geopolitical tensions. He emphasized that the ECB will remain data-dependent, making judgments based on all available evidence rather than committing to a pre-set rate path. Market analysts suggest this cautious tone leaves the door open for further tightening if energy-driven pressures persist.
US-China Trade Teams Negotiate $30 Billion Tariff Cut
China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) confirmed that economic teams from Beijing and Washington are in talks to implement a reciprocal $30 billion tariff reduction. This framework is part of an effort to fulfill the consensus reached by the two heads of state during previous meetings. The negotiations focus on "nonsensitive" goods, including agricultural products and industrial inputs, to lower costs for manufacturers on both sides.
Spokesperson He Yadong indicated that both sides are maintaining close communication to bring the arrangement into effect at an "early date." This development comes as a trade truce reached in late 2025 approaches its expiration in November. Investors are closely watching for a formal announcement during the expected summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on September 24.
Huawei Scales AI Chip Production as Nvidia’s China Share Erodes
Huawei is aggressively expanding its presence in the domestic AI sector, with reports indicating it now holds a larger share of China's AI chip market than Nvidia (NVDA). The Chinese tech giant is currently trialing its Ascend AI chips in select overseas markets, including Malaysia and Egypt, as it seeks to build a global alternative to U.S. hardware. Huawei plans to launch two new advanced AI chips, the 960DT and Ascend 960PR, in 2027 to further close the performance gap.
Industry forecasts suggest Nvidia’s (NVDA) market share in China could collapse from 40% to just 8% by the end of 2026. In contrast, Huawei is targeting the production of 600,000 Ascend units next year, leveraging its UnifiedBus technology to link up to 1 million processors into massive "superclusters." This shift underscores the growing effectiveness of China's self-reliance strategy in the face of U.S. semiconductor export curbs.
Switzerland Upgrades Growth Outlook; Norway Reports Steady Output
The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) significantly raised its 2026 GDP outlook to 1.7%, a sharp increase from the 0.9% projected in June. The upgrade follows an "exceptionally strong" second quarter, where GDP grew by 1.5%, largely driven by the pharmaceutical sector and a surge in exports. Despite the optimism, SECO warned that the Iran conflict and high energy prices remain significant downside risks to the recovery.
In Norway, the Regional Network Survey for Q3 2026 showed current quarter output at 0.3%, slightly above the previous 0.2%. Expectations for the next quarter remained steady at 0.3%. While petroleum investment is expected to fade, increased defense spending and energy infrastructure projects are providing a buffer for the Norwegian mainland economy.
EU-Canada "Associate Membership" Sparks Trump Tariff Threat
The European Union has proposed making Canada its first-ever "associate member," a move intended to deepen cooperation in tech, defense, and energy. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pitched the alliance as a way to boost common strength amid global instability. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has supported the "unique alliance" to reduce Canada's 70% export dependence on the United States.
President Donald Trump responded to the proposal by labeling it a potential "hostile act," threatening to impose "very serious tariffs" or halt trade with Europe entirely if the deal proceeds. The escalation comes as Canada and the U.S. remain locked in a bitter trade dispute following 50% tariffs on Canadian goods imposed earlier this summer. The proposed EU-Canada partnership would require ratification by all 27 EU member states, a process likely to take several years.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.