Key Takeaways
- Washington and Israel are reportedly planning "major steps" inside Iran to alter the course of the war, signaling a significant escalation following the start of "Operation Epic Fury" last month.
- India is engaged in high-stakes diplomacy with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar reporting that talks are already "yielding some results" for energy security.
- Flynas has extended its suspension of flights to eight major Middle Eastern destinations until March 31, as regional airspace remains highly volatile.
- Japan and the United States have established a new framework to mitigate critical mineral supply disruptions, aiming to insulate global technology sectors from geopolitical shocks and export controls.
- Hezbollah has intensified rocket fire into northern Israel, while a separate rocket attack on Baghdad International Airport wounded four people, underscoring the widening regional instability.
US-Israel Escalation and the "Major Steps" Inside Iran
Washington and Israel are preparing additional "major steps" inside Iran that could fundamentally alter the trajectory of the current conflict. According to reports from the Broadcasting Corporation citing Israeli sources, these operations follow the high-profile assassination of the former Supreme Leader and the subsequent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei. The strategic shift suggests a move toward dismantling more of Iran's internal military and command infrastructure as the war enters its third week.
In a parallel diplomatic effort, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian held a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss regional developments. While Tehran continues to blame the United States and Israel for the current insecurity, the call highlights a remaining, albeit narrow, channel for European mediation.
India Mediates to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar told the Financial Times that India (INDA) is holding intensive talks with Iran aimed at helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Jaishankar emphasized that from New Delhi’s perspective, it is "better to reason and coordinate with Iran" than to rely solely on military confrontation. The talks are reportedly yielding results, with some Indian-flagged tankers, such as the Shenlong, successfully transiting the strait under informal safe-passage agreements.
The virtual blockade of the chokepoint has sent global energy prices surging, forcing major consumers to seek alternative routes. India, which relies on the strait for approximately 40% of its crude imports, has shifted 70% of its current intake to sources in Russia, the US, and West Africa to mitigate the impact of the blockade.
Aviation Gridlock and Regional Strikes
The Saudi budget airline Flynas has extended the suspension of all flights to and from Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, Doha, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Syria until March 31. The airline cited the "ongoing regional situation" and continued airspace closures as the primary drivers for the extension. This move follows similar cancellations by international carriers, leaving Saudi Arabia and Oman as the primary remaining transit hubs for the region.
On the ground, the conflict continues to expand geographically. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for rocket attacks on Israeli soldiers at the Tayyiba project and the Avivim settlement. Meanwhile, in Iraq, authorities reported that at least four people were wounded in a rocket attack targeting Baghdad International Airport, a facility that houses both civilian operations and US diplomatic assets.
Japan-US Critical Minerals Agreement
Amid the regional chaos, Japan and the United States have agreed to launch a bilateral framework to handle supply disruptions of critical minerals (LIT, REMX). The agreement, reached between Japanese Minister Ryosei Akazawa and US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, aims to counter export restrictions from resource-producing nations, most notably China.
The framework will include information-sharing and mutual supply mechanisms to ensure that the manufacturing of semiconductors, electric vehicles, and defense technologies remains resilient. This strategic pivot comes as Tokyo also prepares to begin test mining for rare-earth-rich mud near Minamitorishima Island later this year to further reduce foreign dependency.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.