Key Takeaways
- U.S. Crude Oil Inventories surged by 6.156 million barrels for the week ending March 13, a massive build that defied analyst expectations of a 1.5 million barrel draw.
- Persian Gulf oil prices have spiked to over $150 per barrel (Dubai and Oman benchmarks) as physical scarcity intensifies following strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field.
- The White House issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act to expedite fuel and fertilizer deliveries and combat surging domestic energy prices.
- The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, citing "acute" uncertainty and the dilemma of rising energy-driven inflation versus slowing global growth.
- Ukraine successfully struck the Aviastar aircraft manufacturing plant in Russia’s Ulyanovsk region, targeting the production of strategic military transport aircraft.
US Inventory Data Defies Expectations
The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) reported a significant 6.156 million barrel build in crude oil inventories, far exceeding the previous week's build of 3.824 million. This inventory surge comes despite intense geopolitical volatility and suggests a temporary supply cushion in the Atlantic basin.
While crude stocks rose, refined products saw heavy draws. Gasoline inventories fell by 5.436 million barrels, and distillates dropped by 2.527 million barrels, indicating robust domestic demand or tightening refinery outputs. Refinery utilization edged up slightly by 0.60%, matching estimates but remaining below historical peaks.
Middle East Conflict Drives Regional Price Dislocation
A massive price spread has emerged between Atlantic benchmarks and Middle Eastern crude. While WTI and Brent hover near $108 per barrel, regional benchmarks like Dubai and Oman have crossed the $150 threshold. This dislocation is driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has starved Asian markets of physical supply.
Tensions escalated further as Saudi Aramco (2222) began a precautionary evacuation of its SAMREF refinery following Iranian warnings. Strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field have already halted gas flows to Iraq, prompting fears of wider retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure across the Gulf.
White House Issues Emergency Jones Act Waiver
In a bid to curb soaring fuel prices, the Trump administration announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act. This emergency measure allows foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil, gasoline, and fertilizer between U.S. ports. The administration hopes the move will lower shipping costs and ease logistical bottlenecks as the U.S. military continues operations in the Middle East.
The waiver follows a massive release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Despite these efforts, national average gasoline prices have climbed toward $3.80 per gallon, putting significant pressure on the domestic economy.
Bank of Canada Navigates "Acute" Uncertainty
The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25%, matching market expectations. Governor Tiff Macklem warned that the "economic impact of the Middle East war is highly uncertain," with risks to growth tilted to the downside. The bank is currently facing a stagflationary dilemma, where rising energy costs push inflation higher while the conflict dampens global trade.
Macklem stated the bank will "look through" the immediate inflationary impact of the war but warned it will not allow high energy prices to become persistent. The Canadian economy contracted 0.6% in the fourth quarter, and early 2026 data suggests a slower-than-anticipated recovery.
Geopolitical Intelligence and Ukraine Strikes
In Eastern Europe, Ukraine’s military confirmed a drone strike on the Aviastar aircraft plant in Ulyanovsk, a critical facility for Russia’s Il-76 and Il-78 military transport fleet. The strike is part of an expanding long-range campaign targeting Russia’s defense-industrial heartland, which Russian officials now admit is within "direct threat" zones.
U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told a Senate panel that while the Iranian regime remains intact, its capabilities are "largely degraded." Gabbard noted that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was "obliterated" in previous strikes, and there has been no observed effort to rebuild that specific capability to date.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.