Key Takeaways
- Russia to lift its diesel export ban for producers following a partial stabilization of the domestic market, while extending the gasoline export ban until the end of 2026.
- The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have seized control of the Um Siyala area in North Kordofan and are conducting "extensive combing operations" toward the strategic city of Bara.
- Global diesel margins reached record highs of $60.17 per barrel earlier this month due to Russian supply constraints, though the upcoming lifting of the producer ban may provide some relief.
- Russian refinery utilization fell to 64-65% in June 2026, down from a normal range of 82-84%, following systematic drone strikes on energy infrastructure.
- The Sudanese military reports destroying 205 RSF combat vehicles in the first half of July as it intensifies its offensive to secure supply routes from Libya.
Russia Bifurcates Fuel Export Strategy Amid Market Recovery
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced a significant shift in energy policy on July 25, 2026, stating that the government will lift the diesel export ban for producers as domestic supplies recover. The ban, which was fully implemented on July 8 following Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, had successfully increased domestic availability and reduced queues at filling stations. However, while diesel restrictions are easing, the government plans to extend the gasoline export ban until the end of the year to prevent further price spikes during the peak demand season.
The domestic fuel crisis was triggered by a series of strikes that hit nearly all of Russia’s largest refineries, causing a sharp decline in production. In June 2026, output dropped to approximately 4.1–4.3 million barrels per day (bpd), significantly lower than the standard 5.3–5.5 million bpd. To bridge the gap, Russia has reportedly begun seaborne imports of gasoline from India and is discussing supply agreements with Kazakhstan.
Market analysts note that the lifting of the diesel ban for producers is likely a response to ullage constraints—the physical limit of storage capacity—and the high cost of forgoing export revenue. While the ban on non-producers (traders) is expected to remain in place through year-end, the return of Russian producer volumes to the global market may ease pressure on benchmark European diesel margins (LGOc1).
Sudanese Army Gains Ground in North Kordofan Offensive
In East Africa, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have achieved a major tactical breakthrough in the Kordofan region. Military sources confirmed on July 25 that the army now controls the Um Siyala area in North Kordofan, a critical junction for regional logistics. Following this capture, the SAF has launched "extensive combing operations" moving toward the city of Bara, seeking to consolidate its recent gains and push back the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The offensive in North Kordofan is part of a broader strategy by the SAF to cut off RSF supply routes originating from Libya. The military has significantly increased its use of drones and air strikes, claiming to have destroyed 205 combat vehicles and downed four strategic drones between July 1 and July 15. Defense Minister Hassan Dawoud Kabroun stated that the RSF is currently in its "weakest state" since the conflict began in April 2023.
Despite these military advances, the humanitarian situation in North Kordofan remains dire. Recent RSF drone strikes on the Burbur area and water stations in Rahad Al-Nuba have killed at least 15 civilians and disrupted water supplies for thousands of displaced persons. The UN has warned that the escalating use of autonomous weapons by both sides is causing "relentless" suffering for the civilian population in the state capital, El Obeid.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.