SEB Forecasts Riksbank Rate Cut Amid Revised Swedish Growth; U.S. Treasury Yields Show Mixed Movement

By / / Breaking News

Key Takeaways

  • SEB maintains its expectation that the Riksbank will implement a rate cut in September, signaling continued monetary easing in Sweden.
  • The bank has significantly revised its Swedish GDP growth forecasts downward, now projecting 1.1% for 2025 (down from 1.6% in May) and 2.7% for 2026 (down from 2.9%), reflecting a more cautious economic outlook.
  • U.S. Treasury markets saw mixed activity, with the 2-Year Treasury yield declining 1.5 basis points to 3.715%, while the 30-Year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.939%.

SEB, a leading Nordic financial services group, continues to anticipate a monetary policy easing from the Swedish central bank, the Riksbank, with a rate cut expected in September. This outlook comes as the Riksbank has been on an easing cycle, with previous cuts noted in 2024 and a policy rate cut to 2% in June 2025. Analysts at SEB, including FX and fixed income strategist Amanda Sundström, believe the Riksbank will opt for a September cut to allow more time to assess the evolving economic landscape both domestically and globally.

The expectation of further easing is underpinned by SEB's latest economic projections for Sweden, which show a notable downward revision in GDP growth forecasts. The bank now expects Swedish GDP to grow by 1.1% in 2025, a reduction from its previous forecast of 1.6% made in May. Similarly, the growth outlook for 2026 has been lowered to 2.7% from an earlier estimate of 2.9%. These revisions highlight a more subdued economic recovery than previously anticipated, influenced by factors such as global trade tensions and domestic economic conditions.

In the United States, Treasury yields experienced divergent movements. The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield saw a modest decline, falling by 1.5 basis points to settle at 3.715%. Conversely, the longer end of the curve moved higher, with the U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield increasing by 5 basis points to reach 4.939%. These movements reflect ongoing market adjustments to economic data, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy outlooks.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. We are not financial professionals. The authors and/or site operators may hold positions in the companies or assets mentioned. Always do your own research before making financial decisions.
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