Ah, the stock market. A bastion of logic, predictability, and calm, right? Not when Donald J. Trump is in the news cycle. As the former (and potentially future) president continues his whirlwind of policy pronouncements, trade threats, and social media musings, Wall Street often finds itself performing a dizzying dance. Forget fundamental analysis; sometimes, it feels like investors need a crystal ball and a very strong stomach to keep up with the Trump effect, which, as recent events demonstrate, remains as potent and perplexing as ever.
The Tariff Tango: A Two-Step of Chaos and Opportunity
Just when you thought the global trade landscape might settle into a predictable rhythm, President Trump reminds everyone that the music can change at any moment. His penchant for tariffs, framed as a patriotic shield for American industry, consistently sends ripples, if not outright tidal waves, through international markets. The latest round of announcements has been no exception, proving that what’s good for steelworkers might give movie moguls a migraine.
Consider the steel and aluminum saga, a classic Trumpian overture. Back in February 2025, when the initial 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports were floated, the market reacted with a curious mix. While the broader indices saw modest gains – the Nasdaq climbed 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.6% – the real winners were, unsurprisingly, domestic steel companies. Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs, U.S. Steel, and Nucor all saw significant increases. Fast forward to June 2025, and the plot thickened. Trump announced a doubling of these tariffs to a hefty 50%. Futures markets immediately dipped, with Dow futures down 0.52%, S&P 500 futures down 0.57%, and Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 0.73% in pre-market trading. Yet, in a testament to the localized impact, those same steel companies, like Cleveland-Cliffs (+26.2%), Nucor (+14.1%), and Steel Dynamics (+13.4%), once again jumped in pre-market, proving that one man’s trade war is another man’s quarterly bonus.
Then there’s the cinematic twist: a proposed 100% tariff on foreign-made films, announced in May 2025, ostensibly to save the “dying” American movie industry. Hollywood, ever the drama queen, reacted with immediate pre-market losses for major players. Netflix fell 3.3%, Walt Disney dropped 1.5%, and Warner Bros. Discovery declined 2.7%. Later, Netflix shares tumbled 2.5% in early trading, while theater operators like Cinemark (-5.4%) and IMAX (-5.9%) also took a hit. Analysts were quick to point out the obvious contradiction: many “American” studios produce globally, attracted by incentives, making the tariff a potential self-inflicted wound. It seems even Tinseltown isn’t immune to the economic equivalent of a plot twist.
The pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors have also been thrust into the tariff spotlight. Threats of 25% (and higher) tariffs on these critical goods, first announced in January and February 2025, have created a volatile environment. While some US-listed pharmaceutical stocks like Eli Lilly, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, and Moderna initially saw gains in February, foreign counterparts and the broader pharma market took a beating. By April 2025, global pharma stocks, including AstraZeneca, GSK, and Roche, tumbled 6% or more after Trump vowed imminent tariff action. Even President Trump’s May 2025 comments on lowering drug prices via a “most favored nation” policy sent AstraZeneca and GSK down up to 5% and 3.2% respectively, with Pfizer dropping 2.3% in pre-market trading. The message is clear: when it comes to trade, uncertainty is the only certainty, and analysts like Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid confess, “It is really hard to keep up or predict what’s going to happen on trade at the moment”.
From “Liberation Day” to Market Euphoria (and Back Again)
The year 2025 has been a rollercoaster, particularly around the infamous “Liberation Day” on April 2, when President Trump signed an Executive Order declaring a national emergency over the trade deficit and authorizing sweeping tariffs. The market’s reaction was, to put it mildly, dramatic. A global crash ensued, with the S&P 500 plummeting nearly 20% within seven weeks, wiping out an estimated $6.6 trillion from the US stock market in just two days. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” surged to 45.31, its highest closing level since April 2020.
However, in a move that could only be described as peak Trump, a “tariff pause” was announced on April 9, temporarily suspending some of the planned increases. Suddenly, the market surged, demonstrating a profound relief that the trade war might, for a moment, take a breather. As J.P. Morgan’s Abiel Reinhart noted, a permanent 5% tariff rate (down from the effective 15.8% seen in August 2025) “would imply a material upgrade to our growth forecast”. This cycle of aggressive threats followed by partial retreats has led some analysts, like SMBC’s Jeff Ng, to observe that investors have become somewhat “numb” to the constant tariff salvos, knowing there’s often “still room for negotiation”. One might call it market desensitization, or perhaps, a well-practiced eye-roll.
Truth Social: Where Policy Meets the Public (and the Market)
Beyond formal announcements and official channels, President Trump’s preferred communication platform, Truth Social, continues to be a source of market-moving headlines. The power of a single post to influence global sentiment was evident on September 18, 2025, when Trump declared an Iran-Israel ceasefire on Truth Social. This pronouncement reportedly set the Sensex and Nifty in India for a “gap-up start”. While not directly impacting US indices, it highlights the outsized influence of his digital megaphone.
Even the seemingly mundane can become market fodder. On September 15, 2025, Trump mused on Truth Social about companies not being forced to report quarterly earnings, suggesting semi-annual reports might be more beneficial. While no immediate market reaction was tied to this specific post, it underscores the constant, low-level hum of policy uncertainty emanating from his digital presence. And let’s not forget Eric Trump’s announcement of an “American Bitcoin Launch” on September 18, lauding Bitcoin as ‘modern-day gold’ – a reminder that the Trump brand extends into new, volatile asset classes [cite: Alert 19].
The Grand Paradox: Records Amidst the Ruckus
Despite the persistent “headwinds from tariffs and a weak manufacturing sector”, the broader US stock market has, in recent days, managed to defy gravity. On Thursday, September 18, 2025, Wall Street indices closed at new record highs. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 6,631.96, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% to 46,142.42, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 0.9% to 22,470.73. Even the small-cap Russell 2000 surged 2.5%. This rally was largely attributed to expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and a significant boost from the semiconductor sector, particularly Intel, which soared over 22% after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment and partnership.
As of Friday, September 19, 2025, the US500 (a CFD tracking the S&P 500) continued its upward trajectory, gaining 0.24% to 6647 points. It’s a testament to the market’s ability to compartmentalize, or perhaps, its sheer exhaustion. Analysts from Goldman Sachs estimate that changes to US trade policy will subtract 0.4% from global GDP in 2025, with potential for a much larger hit if a 10% across-the-board tariff is implemented. Yet, here we are, hitting new highs. It seems the market, much like a seasoned poker player, has learned to read the bluster, anticipate the flip-flop, and perhaps, just perhaps, find opportunity in the chaos. Or, as one analyst put it, tariffs are taxes, and “generally when you tax something, you get less of it”. Except, apparently, when it comes to market volatility, where we seem to be getting an abundance.
DISCLAIMER: We read Trump’s posts so you don’t have to. This is comedy meets market data, not financial advice. Not political advice either – we just like charts and chaos.
Elana Harper is a seasoned financial editor and market analyst with over a decade of experience covering global equities, economic trends, and corporate earnings. Known for her sharp insights, Elana specializes in making complex financial topics accessible to a broad audience. She now serves as the Senior Financial Editor at Stock Market Watch, where she oversees daily market coverage and political commentary.