Key Takeaways
- President Trump declared a "great settlement" has been reached with Iran, potentially ending the ongoing conflict with a formal signing ceremony expected in Europe as early as this weekend.
- New Zealand’s manufacturing sector slipped into contraction in May, with the BNZ-BusinessNZ PMI falling to 49.9 due to weak demand and high fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions.
- NZ short-term visitor arrivals rose 8% in April year-over-year, reaching 288,500, though growth slowed significantly from the 15.1% pace seen in March.
- New Zealand net migration fell to 3,090 in April, down from 3,370 in March, as the country faces cooling economic momentum and persistent geopolitical headwinds.
Trump Signals Imminent End to Iran Conflict
President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that the United States has reached a "great settlement" to end the war with Iran. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump stated that the deal is "pretty much complete" and that the U.S. "got everything it wanted," including a permanent commitment from Tehran to never develop or acquire nuclear weapons. The President subsequently canceled scheduled military strikes that were slated for Thursday evening, citing the breakthrough in high-level negotiations.
The proposed agreement, currently structured as a detailed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), is expected to be signed in Europe within days. While Trump will not attend the ceremony, Vice President JD Vance and top negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are slated to represent the administration. A critical component of the deal includes the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil markets that has been effectively closed during the hostilities.
New Zealand Manufacturing Dips as Global Tensions Bite
New Zealand’s industrial sector is showing signs of strain from the prolonged geopolitical instability. The BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) fell to 49.9 in May, down from 50.4 in April. This marks the first move into contractionary territory (below the 50.0 threshold) after several months of marginal expansion.
BusinessNZ officials attributed the decline to a "toxic mix" of weak customer demand, elevated fuel prices, and the indirect impact of the Middle East conflict on global supply chains. While large firms (101+ employees) remained resilient with a sub-index of 57.6, micro-firms struggled significantly, posting a reading of just 46.0.
Migration and Tourism Growth Decelerates
Fresh data from Stats NZ reveals a cooling trend in New Zealand’s external migration and tourism sectors. Short-term visitor arrivals grew by 8% in April compared to the previous year, a sharp deceleration from the 15.1% growth recorded in March. Despite the slowdown, arrivals from China saw a notable boost, up 11,100, aided by a new visa trial for Chinese passport holders traveling via Australia.
On the migration front, net migration for April was recorded at 3,090, down from the revised March figure of 3,370. The total annual net migration gain stands at approximately 24,200, as the pace of arrivals begins to normalize following the post-pandemic surge. Analysts suggest that the combination of a softening labor market and high living costs may be tempering the appeal for new migrants in the short term.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.