Key Takeaways
- President Trump informed G7 leaders that Iran is "about to surrender," though he notably did not specify a firm date for the conclusion of the ongoing military conflict.
- Tehran was rocked by explosions near a pro-government Quds Day march on Friday, as the US-Israeli campaign targeting Iranian infrastructure enters its third week.
- China’s February credit data significantly outperformed expectations, with Aggregate Financing hitting 9.6 trillion CNY against a 9.245 trillion CNY estimate.
- India has officially paused negotiations on a major US trade deal following the launch of a new Section 301 probe into "unfair trade practices" by the Trump administration.
- Italy’s industrial sector continues to struggle, with January production falling 0.6%, missing analyst forecasts for a 0.4% expansion.
In a high-stakes virtual call with G7 leaders on Friday, President Trump asserted that the Iranian government is on the verge of collapse. According to reports from Axios, the President claimed that the current military pressure has left the Islamic Republic with "practically nothing left" to defend, though he stopped short of providing a definitive timeline for the end of hostilities. The conflict, which began in late February, has seen oil prices fluctuate wildly, impacting global energy markets and the United States Oil Fund (USO).
On the ground in Tehran, the situation remains volatile as state media agency Tasnim reported large explosions near a pro-government march. The blasts occurred during annual Quds Day demonstrations, which were being held in support of the Palestinian cause and the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has vowed a "stronger response" to any internal unrest, even as US and Israeli airstrikes continue to target government and military installations.
Economic data from China provided a rare bright spot for global markets on Friday. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that Aggregate Financing for February reached 9.6 trillion CNY, well above the anticipated 9.245 trillion CNY. New Yuan Loans also beat estimates at 5.61 trillion CNY, suggesting that Beijing’s aggressive stimulus measures are beginning to take hold. Investors responded positively, with the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) seeing increased activity in pre-market trading.
In Washington, domestic political friction is mounting as President Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune clash over the SAVE America Act. The bill, which mandates proof of citizenship for voter registration, is scheduled for the Senate floor next week, but Thune has expressed skepticism regarding its passage due to a unified Democratic filibuster. Trump has reportedly threatened to block all other legislation until the act is signed into law, creating a potential legislative stalemate.
Trade relations between the US and India have hit a significant roadblock. Sources indicate that New Delhi is holding off on a long-awaited trade pact after the US Trade Representative launched a probe into "unfair trade practices" across 16 major partners. The investigation could lead to new tariffs as early as this summer, a move that has pressured the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) as manufacturers brace for increased costs.
European economic indicators remained weak on Friday morning. Italy’s industrial production fell by 0.6% in January, a sharp contrast to the 0.4% growth economists had predicted. The data highlights the persistent manufacturing malaise in the Eurozone, weighing on the iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI). Meanwhile, the EU Commission cautioned that gas storage should not be refilled "at all costs," signaling a shift in energy strategy as the bloc manages high prices and supply volatility.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.