Key Takeaways
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 100.00 threshold as President Donald Trump called off a planned military strike on Iran, opting instead for fresh negotiations starting Monday.
- The US and Japan conducted a rare coordinated currency intervention to support the Japanese Yen (JPY), marking the first such joint action in over a decade as the currency hit 40-year lows.
- A potential US ban on Chinese AI models could impose a $12 billion annual cost on American businesses, with startups warning that a ban on "open-weight" models would stifle domestic innovation.
- Cuba’s national power grid suffered a total collapse, plunging the island into a complete blackout amid critical fuel shortages and aging infrastructure.
- Major financial institutions issued a wave of target price upgrades, with JPMorgan raising outlooks for Vinci (DG), BAWAG Group (BAWG), and NatWest (NWG).
Geopolitical Shifts Drive Currency Volatility
The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened to approximately 99.70 during early Monday trading following President Donald Trump’s announcement that he had halted a "massive attack" on Iran. The shift toward diplomacy, with talks scheduled to begin today, has eased immediate fears of a major conflict in the Middle East and lowered demand for the greenback as a safe-haven asset.
Simultaneously, the US Treasury and Japan's Ministry of Finance executed a historic joint intervention to prop up the Japanese Yen. President Trump described the move as a "signal of friendship" to help Tokyo stabilize its currency after it plummeted toward a 40-year low. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the action, stating the US would not hesitate to participate in further interventions to curb "disorderly movements."
Tech and Energy Sector Developments
A new report from the South China Morning Post suggests that a US ban on Chinese artificial intelligence models could cost American companies $12 billion per year. Industry leaders and roughly 200 startups have petitioned the White House to avoid a ban on Chinese open-source models like DeepSeek and Kimi, arguing that these low-cost alternatives are essential for maintaining the competitiveness of US-based AI developers.
In the energy sector, Gerdes Energy Research upgraded its target price for Shell (SHEL) to $123, a $6 increase reflecting the company's robust profit margins and a recently announced $3 billion share buyback program. Meanwhile, Cuba faces a severe energy crisis as its national electric utility reported a total system shutdown on Sunday, leaving 10 million people without power.
Analyst Upgrades and Market Moves
Wall Street analysts remain active with several significant price target adjustments for major global firms:
- Piper Sandler raised its target for Northeast Bank (NBN) to $151 from $145.
- JPMorgan increased its outlook for French construction giant Vinci (DG) to EUR 143 and Austrian lender BAWAG Group (BAWG) to EUR 192.
- NatWest Group (NWG) saw its target price nudged higher by JPMorgan to 790p, while Austrian engineering firm Andritz AG (ANDR) was upgraded to EUR 93.
These upgrades come as many European and regional US banks report stronger-than-expected net interest income and resilient loan growth despite the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.