Key Takeaways
- US and Iran have reached an agreed-upon text for a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the current conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately.
- SpaceX IPO fees for lead underwriters Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are estimated at $100 million each, despite a record-low "gross spread" of just 0.75%.
- US Oil Rig Count rose by 2 to 433, while the total rig count dipped slightly to 562, according to the latest Baker Hughes (BKR) weekly report.
- NY Fed GDP Nowcast for Q2 edged higher to 2.70%, up from the previous estimate of 2.67%, signaling continued domestic economic resilience.
- President Trump paused a high-risk ground mission intended to capture Iran’s uranium stockpile, opting instead for the diplomatic breakthrough announced Friday.
US-Iran Diplomatic Breakthrough
The United States and Iran have reached a "final, agreed-upon text" for a peace deal, according to Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif, who served as the official mediator. The agreement, structured as a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU), aims to end the blockade of Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping without tolls. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that a deal has "never been closer," while President Trump indicated a formal signing could occur as early as this weekend or Monday in Geneva.
The deal reportedly includes a comprehensive inspection system to ensure Iran’s nuclear program remains peaceful and meets long-term regional security goals. Under the terms, the US will provide staggered financial relief and lift oil sanctions in exchange for Iran's commitment to dismantle key nuclear sites and destroy existing highly enriched uranium. While Trump has hailed the agreement as meeting all his administration's goals, Iranian state media has issued conflicting reports, prompting Trump to demand public clarifications from Tehran.
SpaceX IPO Fee Bonanza
Wall Street is preparing for a historic payday as the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) approaches its debut. Despite Elon Musk’s firm negotiating a razor-thin underwriter fee of 0.75%—tying the record for the lowest spread in US history—the sheer scale of the $75 billion raise ensures a massive windfall. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), the lead "top-left" bookrunners, are expected to pocket at least $100 million each in fees.
The IPO, which values the space and AI giant at approximately $1.75 trillion, has seen overwhelming demand, with order books reportedly closing early due to being four times oversubscribed. Analysts at the lead banks project SpaceX’s revenue could reach $160 billion by 2028, and potentially $3.4 trillion by 2040. The listing on the Nasdaq is expected to be the largest market debut in history, significantly outpacing previous records held by companies like Saudi Aramco and Alibaba.
Energy and Economic Indicators
The domestic energy sector showed mixed activity this week as the US Total Rig Count fell by 1 to 562, according to Baker Hughes (BKR). While the Gas Rig Count dropped by 3 to 121, the Oil Rig Count increased by 2 to 433, reflecting a slight shift in drilling priorities amid fluctuating global energy prices. Markets responded positively to the Iran peace news, with Trump noting a 1,000-point surge in stock indices and predicting a further decline in global oil prices once the Strait of Hormuz officially reopens.
On the macroeconomic front, the New York Fed updated its Q2 GDP Nowcast to 2.70%, a slight upward revision from the previous 2.67%. This adjustment follows stronger-than-expected manufacturing and payroll data, suggesting the US economy remains on a solid growth trajectory despite regional geopolitical volatility. Concurrently, reports surfaced that the US military had prepared a high-stakes ground mission to seize Iran's uranium, but the operation was paused by President Trump to prioritize the current diplomatic resolution.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.