Key Takeaways
- Walmart (WMT) beats Q4 earnings expectations but issues cautious 2027 guidance, overshadowed by a massive new $30B share buyback program.
- USDA 2026 Outlook reveals lower-than-estimated corn ending stocks at 1,837M bushels, while wheat stocks exceeded expectations at 933M bushels.
- Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) permanently halts redemptions at its retail private credit fund, OBDC II, signaling potential liquidity stress in the private credit sector.
- China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries have fallen to $682.6 billion, marking the lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis.
- Central bank officials from the ECB and BoE offer mixed inflation signals, with the ECB's DeMarco dismissing concerns over a stronger Euro.
Walmart Reports Strong Q4 but Cautious Outlook
Walmart (WMT) reported Q4 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.74, slightly beating the analyst estimate of $0.73. Total revenue reached $190.66 billion, surpassing expectations of $190.58 billion, driven by a 4.6% comparable sales increase at U.S. Walmart stores.
Despite the beat, the retail giant provided a conservative outlook for fiscal year 2027, projecting adjusted EPS between $2.75 and $2.85, which fell short of the $2.97 consensus. To bolster investor confidence, the company announced a new $30B share buyback plan, even as Sam's Club comparable sales of +4% narrowly missed the +4.4% estimate.
Central Banks Weigh Inflation and Currency Levels
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Alexander DeMarco stated that it would "not be the end of the world" if the Euro reached the $1.20-$1.25 range. He expressed concern that inflation consistently remaining below 2% could necessitate further policy adjustments.
Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) official Catherine Mann noted that while goods inflation has fallen better than hoped, services inflation remains sticky. Mann expects the UK to reach its 2% inflation target within the next three to four months, citing food inflation as a primary factor in her current decision-making.
USDA 2026 Outlook and Commodity Shifts
The USDA released its 2026 outlook, showing significant deviations from market estimates for ending stocks. Corn ending stocks were pegged at 1,837M, notably lower than the 2,000M estimated by analysts, suggesting a tighter supply-demand balance.
Conversely, wheat ending stocks were reported at 933M, significantly higher than the 865M estimate. Soybean stocks came in at 355M, closely aligning with the 357M estimate, while cotton stocks were slightly higher than expected at 4.2M.
Private Credit Warnings and Macro Shifts
In a move reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) has permanently halted investor redemptions at its retail private credit fund, OBDC II. This reversal of plans to reopen withdrawals has raised alarms regarding liquidity and valuation stability within the private credit market.
On the geopolitical front, China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries continued their downward trend, dropping to $682.6 billion. This represents a multi-decade low as the nation continues to diversify its foreign exchange reserves away from dollar-denominated assets.
Corporate Strategy and Energy Coordination
Rio Tinto (RIO) is shifting its focus toward internal growth plans following the collapse of "megadeal" talks with Glencore. The mining giant aims to capitalize on long-term demand for transition metals rather than pursuing large-scale consolidation at this time.
In the energy sector, the European Union has called for an extra Oil Coordination Group meeting on February 25. The meeting is expected to address regional supply security and coordination amid ongoing volatility in global energy markets.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.